Chapter 562

Silence fell over the room. I looked at the yellow sheets of paper laid out before each person in the candlelit conference hall, thought for a moment, then added, “If we are willing to go a little further, I would like to see us boycott fruit and dairy products as well.”

It was only natural that the government was focused on Pleroma. They had undoubtedly had another plan in the works. That was, until Sir Nikolaus Ernst and Bavaria cut their organization in half.

Even while I was under house arrest, I’d wondered why Pleroma wasn’t making a move. By now, however, the answer had become clear. More than three days had passed since Easter evening, and Pleroma had yet to respond. They had no intention of showing themselves just yet. Presumably, the reason for their delay was that they were pouring all their efforts into rebuilding their organization and revising their plans. We couldn’t exactly crack open their skulls and inspect their brains, so there was no way to know for certain, but the theory that they were still in the process of recovering was the most reasonable one.

Setting aside the fact that the government should have either revived the advisory committee—which had been established but left little more than a shell—or assembled a competent group made up entirely of people loyal to the Imperial Family, it should at least have formed a separate task force to deal with Pleroma or begun preparing for their next attack. Even so, from our side of things, it seemed we had a little breathing room when it came to Pleroma.

That left one more source of trouble.

France.

Just as Pleroma was waiting for the day it could swallow up power, France was watching the continent, waiting for its chance to bring Germany down. The Ministry of Magic had been so preoccupied with the Ein Feshkha Manuscript that it had lost sight of the enemy abroad. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had succeeded in establishing good relations with Britain, but it had grown complacent in the belief that it was already taking action and had lost sight of the real enemy.

For someone standing in a forest, it was only natural to focus on the trees rather than the forest as a whole. But politicians were precisely the people who couldn’t afford to do that. They needed to be able to shift their attention between the forest and the trees at the right time, and those were the people who ought to be leading the nation’s affairs.

I couldn’t always manage to see the bigger picture myself, but at the very least, I could bring up a subject they had failed to address for one reason or another—draw their attention back to an issue they had let slip from view.

I turned to Abraham, whose eyes gleamed faintly gold in the candlelight as he fixed his gaze on me, then addressed the officials watching from beside him.

“You said France hasn’t been communicating with us appropriately. If that is the case, then rather than waiting for France to act, we need to make them act. This is the time for a well-placed jab. However, there are limits to what we can do at the government level.”

Relations between France and Germany had soured during the Franco-Prussian War, but the two countries had since been working toward an era of peace. The most-favored-nation arrangements currently maintained among Europe’s great powers were proof enough of that.

And so— just as I was about to continue, the person seated directly in front of Abraham spoke up.

“Lord Askanien certainly lives up to his name. I was quite surprised. For a moment, I thought you had forgotten about our most-favored-nation arrangements.”

Surprised… What an interesting choice of words. I checked his name through the status window and compared it with the officials I remembered from the government’s organizational chart. He wasn’t part of the government but belonged to the Imperial Court. He was the Imperial Diplomatic Privy Councilor, a member of the Alvensleben family, which had produced generations of Prussian politicians. Since the Privy Council served as the Emperor’s advisory body, the advisory committee Nikolaus Ernst belonged to was under its jurisdiction as well. In terms of rank, Nikolaus Ernst and this person were equals.

What I’d meant to say was that there were limits to what the government could do, so someone outside the government would have to take action. Saying that the government’s options were limited presupposed that Germany and France were bound by their most-favored-nation arrangements. He understood what I’d been getting at, too. Imperial Diplomatic Privy Councilor Alvensleben held a pen in one hand and casually opened the other as he spoke.

“Even if we shift the burden onto private citizens, we must remember that Germany and France are bound by most-favored-nation arrangements. If the Imperial Dailies and all manner of yellow journals start publishing articles calling for a boycott, they will realize that our government is encouraging such sentiment.”

“Yes. They will certainly take note of it, even if only privately.”

“Our subjects must certainly be wary of France’s avaricious aggression. And among the younger generation, harboring resentment toward France might even be seen as a form of patriotism. However, Lord Askanien, you must understand that France could threaten to revoke its most-favored-nation arrangements with us the moment things don’t go their way. The question of reparations is an extremely sensitive one, so Germany must tread carefully in its response and handle all its relations with the utmost caution. If so many countries were dragged into France’s schemes and severed their most-favored-nation ties with us, it would be a diplomatic disaster. We would be isolated. We would lose the opportunity to export our advanced technology and machinery to other countries on favorable terms. The problem goes beyond lost exports. It would ultimately become a sign that Germany had lost its national dignity and power.”

Imperial Diplomatic Privy Councilor Alvensleben spoke with an expression meant to persuade. My own expression didn’t change. When I continued to listen in silence, the Privy Councilor touched on the heart of the matter.

“More importantly, why should we provoke France?”

The Privy Councilor waited for my answer, but when no one spoke, he continued.

“France is keeping quiet of its own accord. Have you considered that their poor judgment is buying us time? While the Ministry of Magic and the magical academic community study the Ein Feshkha Manuscript to prepare for the anti-Pleroma campaign, we are using the time France wastes in silence to develop our own strategy against Pleroma and build up the means to counter their claims.”

By this point, I understood what he was getting at. Imperial Diplomatic Privy Councilor Alvensleben had apparently taken me for an impassioned youth who had barged into a meeting. That wasn’t entirely unreasonable. Still, my response would depend on what he said. If his argument was sound, I could set aside the question of whether he considered me an unwelcome intruder. But if I found his reasoning lacking, there would be no way for me to agree with him. That was my assessment, and I reached my conclusion.

I gave a polite nod before answering.

“First, if the benefits European countries gain from trading with France are greater than those they gain from trading with Germany, then publishing calls for a boycott in the newspapers would be a problem.”

In other words, if European countries profited more from trade with France than from trade with Germany, they would choose France over Germany if it came down to an ultimatum. To avoid putting ourselves in that position, we would have to refrain from provoking France with something as simple as boycott articles.

I continued without pause.

“However, I don’t believe those benefits are greater than what they gain from trading with Germany. Especially at a time when industries across the continent are accelerating their development.”

There were three main ways to retaliate against France.

First, military retaliation. We couldn’t simply choose that option, so I crossed it off the list.

Second, economic retaliation.

Third, cultural retaliation. The third option would largely be driven by the public. Compared to the first two, its effects would take longer to materialize, and the damage would be relatively minor from the short-sighted perspective of politicians responsible for governing the country. We needed to get the French politicians, who had dug in their heels, to act. So I crossed that option off as well.

That left us with what? Economic retaliation, and nothing else.

How could Germany retaliate? One of the most common economic countermeasures in this era was adjusting tariffs, but there was a problem with that. Britain, Germany, France, Austria-Hungary, Italy, and the other European powers were all bound together by most-favored-nation agreements. The terms of these agreements varied somewhat from country to country, and they did not always guarantee the most favorable tariffs. In France’s case, however, they did.

For example, if Germany sharply raised tariffs on French wine imports to the point of seriously harming French winegrowers, it would have to raise tariffs on British wine by the same amount. Otherwise, it would be violating its most-favored-nation agreement by raising tariffs on French wine alone. Since much of the wine imported into Germany came from France, the impact on Britain would be relatively minor. Even so, the dispute between Germany and France would still send ripples through countries that had nothing to do with it. If a tariff war like this escalated, the entire European economy could be thrown into turmoil for some time.

No country would welcome a provocation that threatened the stability of its own people. The German government would be drawn into France’s provocation and end up causing trouble for the European continent on the economic front as well.

What if Germany abandoned most-favored-nation treatment and raised tariffs on French wine alone? That would amount to a direct response to France’s provocation of war. The proxy war waged through the press would no longer remain a proxy conflict. The confrontation would become much more explicit.

Fortunately, much like in the history I knew, Germany had remained an agricultural nation for a long time compared to Britain and France, but in recent years it had grown at an explosive pace and begun to lead the way in various industries.

Under the Privy Councilor’s skeptical gaze, as if he were asking what grounds I had for believing that the benefits of trading with France would be smaller than those of trading with Germany, I replied.

“Germany has more advanced electrical and chemical industries than Britain and France, and its vast territory makes it largely self-sufficient in resources and agricultural produce. German coal is essential to France’s steel industry, and German precision instruments are necessary for the development of French industry as a whole. France’s textile industry is also heavily influenced by Germany’s chemical industry. I am sure Your Excellency, as Privy Councilor, knows that the same applies not only to France but to other European countries as well. So there is no need to worry about comparing the benefits each European country gains from trading with us. Instead, what we should be looking at is how much France stands to lose. What if France were to withdraw from Germany?”

It was obvious what Imperial Diplomatic Privy Councilor Alvensleben would say. Yet despite my ending with a question, he responded with something else.

“You haven’t considered the possibility that France has a bigger plan in mind, Lord Askanien. France has been indirectly boasting that it will distribute the spoils of the German Empire’s downfall among the other European nations. All its insolence up to this point has been based on that promise. In other words, they are saying that since we are better off than they are, there must be plenty to go around if they bring down a prosperous Germany like this one.”

“Your Excellency, I would like to address that point a little later.”

I nodded with a polite expression and replied in a courteous tone.

“To continue, although there will be losses across numerous sectors, the damage Germany suffers won’t be as great as the losses France will incur. France’s trade with Germany is centered on agricultural products and luxury goods: wine, dairy products, perfume, textiles, clothing, and fine crafts. France imports goods from Germany that are difficult to replace, whereas Germany imports goods from France that are comparatively nonessential. We can produce basic agricultural goods like wheat ourselves or import them from the United States and Russia, so France has no grounds to threaten to cut off our food supply. France has expanded trade with Britain and Belgium to reduce its dependence on Germany, but those efforts have been insufficient.”

I glanced at the Minister of Foreign Affairs, who was nodding, and continued.

“We may no longer be able to afford fine wine and dairy products at low prices, but we can expand imports of substitute wines from Italy and Portugal, or use this opportunity to stimulate domestic demand. The sharp rise in the prices of luxury fabrics and perfumes will cause dissatisfaction, but that is still preferable to France, where numerous industries are beginning to stagnate and the resulting costs are placing an even greater burden on the country. In short…”

I looked around the room at the patriotic politicians who had staked their pride on the German Empire.

“Germany is in a position to put pressure on France through trade. However, if we go so far as to provoke a trade ‘war,’ our own businesses will suffer from the loss of export markets. And maintaining hostilities with France over the long term would undoubtedly strain the German economy as well. Above all, a government-led trade war would be all too likely to involve revoking most-favored-nation status.”

Thus, the Empire would intervene indirectly and let the invisible hand do its work. We wouldn’t immediately exclude the chemical and machinery industries from trade with France. As I’d already considered, doing so would constrict our own businesses and economy.

But we needed to send a warning.

How to do it was obvious, as I’d already explained. We needed to get the French to stop sitting back with their arms crossed and start taking action, all while stimulating our own economy. The solution was to replace French luxury goods with domestic ones. We would take it one step at a time. This would deal gradual blows to the French economy while giving them a glimpse of the massive decline that lay ahead, and it would stimulate domestic demand in the short term as well. French wine might be delicious, but Germans consumed plenty of their own wine, too. There was no shortage of farms and factories producing dairy products, either. And Germany had more than enough perfume and fountain pen manufacturers. Even expensive fruit could be replaced with German-grown produce.

“We need to get the private sector moving.”

I spoke in a low, confident voice as I looked into the eyes of the older people, who seemed to be coming around to my way of thinking. Given the nationalism and patriotism prevalent in Germany at this time, it was possible. The people were probably already reluctant to buy anything labeled French. What Germany needed as a nation was a response that would bring even those who weren’t already on board to our side.

On a personal level, I didn’t want to give them this advice. My thoughts kept turning to the French orchard workers who made their living exporting produce to Germany. I couldn’t see them as some faceless mass of enemy nationals. I saw them as individuals, as people with families of their own. And whenever I let myself think of them while speaking, my throat tightened.

But that was wrong. A politician like this could become a great statesman if he made the right choices, or lead his own country to ruin if he didn’t. Someone who did the latter had no business being a politician. One had to maintain a balance.

If Germany collapsed now, all that would remain would be Bavaria, reduced to a puppet state of the Papal See; France—Terminus Eukairia—rejoicing at the destruction of its old rival; and Britain, Russia, and Austria-Hungary. Even if we hastened our own downfall, all we could expect was chaos across the continent and the rise of magical terrorist organizations.

Prussia might seem to do nothing but make a mess of things, but its population and territory couldn’t be dismissed. Nor could one ignore its ability to rise from barren, sandy soil to become a great power on the continent. The politicians of this era might seem incompetent, but that was only because I was seeing them up close. In truth, many people were like this. I believed politicians needed to see the forest, not just the trees, yet few in Germany or abroad were capable of doing so.

Bavaria versus Prussia was important, but it presupposed that Prussia had to exist in the first place. Prussia needed to win once more in its struggle against France, and I had to take advantage of this opportunity, when a little advice might be enough to secure that victory. On the other hand, if I wanted to see Terminus Eukairia rule the European continent, all I had to do was keep my advice to myself.

I turned to the Minister of Foreign Affairs sitting across from me and asked.

“Your Excellency, I would like to hear what measures the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has taken against France so far.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs probably hadn’t been able to directly challenge France over its actions. All the French Imperial Family had done was reveal Atropos’s existence and warn Germany. The rest had been stirred up by all manner of economists, policy experts, chancellors, and the like through the French imperial newspapers. France had deliberately waited for Germany to be backed into a corner before making the announcement at this particular point, so this was only to be expected.

The minister replied in a low voice.

“We informed them that our government was already devoting all its efforts to dealing with Atropos, and we summoned the French ambassador. Within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we also gathered intelligence on France’s movements through separate channels. Do you need that information?”

“No. I wouldn’t want to trouble you unnecessarily. Your Excellency, Privy Councilor, would you permit me to address your concerns as well?”

“You were brought here to speak, so there is no need to ask permission so humbly.”

Abraham had actually said something useful for once. I’d thought all he knew how to do was glare fiercely and pick fights with ministers, but at least he was doing his part when it came to carrying out his plans. He was fulfilling the bare minimum expected of a crown prince. That was why he still held the title instead of having been demoted to an ordinary prince.

In any case, I had merely shown the proper courtesy to the members of the Privy Council, who enjoyed the emperor’s favor. Even if the other party refused to hear me out, I intended to say what needed to be said one way or another.

“Your Excellency, you said Germany would be isolated by the other European nations. Is that because you believe countries like Switzerland will side with France? Even in Switzerland’s case, however, its dependence on trade with Germany is greater than its dependence on trade with France, so I doubt the current situation will last. Belgium is the real concern. And Britain and Italy.”

These were the countries that traded more with France than with Germany, or at least traded with France on an equal footing.

“We have less to worry about with Britain, since we have agreed to share maritime trade routes and transfer chemical technology to them. Belgium is another matter. Italy, too, won’t be able to give up its luxury-goods trade with France. Even so, Italy has little incentive to abandon its friendly relations with Germany. In fact, given that a considerable number of European countries already depend more heavily on trade with Germany, even if those two countries joined France in abandoning most-favored-nation status, the damage would not be severe. In particular, there are no goods or services that we can obtain exclusively through trade with Belgium or Italy. The real issue is that, unlike Belgium, Italy is a major power. I want to eliminate the possibility of it joining forces with France over even a minor dispute. If that is the case…”

I swept my gaze around the room, tilted my head slightly, and continued.

“We could temporarily persuade our companies to lower the prices of the machinery we export to Italy, or import Italian wine as a substitute for French wine.”

Lowering the prices of machinery exported to Italy wouldn’t violate the principle of most-favored-nation treatment. That principle applied to relations between countries. Individual companies were free to set their own prices.

For some reason, the Privy Councilor didn’t answer. His lips were moving as though he were about to speak, so I hurried to cut in. It would be troublesome if he started arguing back.

“Now, I would like to offer my own thoughts on why we shouldn’t welcome France’s current silence. If we are to speculate on why France hasn’t responded, I would say they are pouring the fuel of time onto the flames of Europe’s greed.”

“Hmm.”

The Minister of Finance reacted for the first time. Understanding why, I nodded and continued.

“Because this is precisely the moment when other countries see an opportunity to extract money from Germany. Even though Bavaria dealt a devastating blow to Pleroma, some countries, Switzerland among them, are still demanding contributions on the grounds that remnants of Pleroma and Atropos remain. In other words, even though Bavaria has half-extinguished the fire France and Pleroma started, France is waiting for the flames to grow back to their original size while there is still half the time left. That is why they are staying silent.”

France was deliberately standing by without issuing an ultimatum to Germany because it didn’t want to put an end to the other countries’ greed. By withholding any new developments that might prompt them to revise their plans, France was keeping those demands alive. I continued.

“France has a responsibility to take a position on the claims it has been loudly making to all its neighboring countries. The moment France responds to Germany’s request, it will have to make a decision. Countries like Switzerland will then reconsider their own decisions in light of France’s position. And there are plenty of countries like that. The problem is that if France doesn’t truly want an all-out war, it will eventually have to lower its sword. That will send a signal—a signal to its neighbors that they no longer need to keep their blades raised.”

At last, the ministers began nodding slightly.

“Therefore, France will want to keep its silence for as long as possible. It will stall until it can delay no longer, then issue a response unfavorable to Germany. After that, just when the situation looks likely to spiral into a catastrophe for both sides, it will withdraw and send a signal of peace. France didn’t expect Germany to cripple Pleroma so successfully, so it will have to reassess our technological capabilities. In that sense, we can no longer be certain that France intends to oppose us to the bitter end. The reason it is dragging things out is that Germany has the advantage in a short war.”

“…….”

“So it seems clear that we have no reason to give them more time.”

No one spoke. The atmosphere grew chilly as Imperial Diplomatic Privy Councilor Alvensleben sat in silence, staring blankly into space. Abraham had his eyes lowered and was doing nothing but drinking. In other words, he looked as though he had expected this all along and had no particular thoughts on the matter.

“Ahem.”

The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs cleared his throat, glancing between the Crown Prince and the Privy Councilor to gauge their reactions. Meanwhile, the Minister of Foreign Affairs had been studying me for quite some time. Wondering what he was thinking, I looked back at him. When our eyes met, he turned his gaze elsewhere, but he didn’t seem particularly displeased.

“Now, then.”

Abraham set down his glass and snapped his fingers.

“An explosive boycott of French imports. A great achievement for Germany, for the German people… a truly German undertaking. Hmm.”

He murmured as though imagining the slogan and the psychology of the people it would appeal to, resting his fingers against his temple before clasping his hands together. He had been looking down, but when he raised his gaze, his eyes, glowing orange in the candlelight, fixed eerily on me. He glanced at the people seated on either side of him, tilted his head slightly, and mechanically pulled up the corners of his mouth.

“Let’s see if France decides to make a move.”

When I presented my demands at the Victoria Lyceum, I brought up Elias with Abraham indirectly. If I genuinely wanted what was best for him, I couldn’t simply ask Abraham to guarantee his safety. Stating what I wanted outright would mean exposing my weakness. Abraham already knew how much I valued my friends, but there was a considerable difference between knowing that and having me single someone out and explicitly ask him to protect them. I had a rough idea of when I might be able to see them again, so all I could do until then was hope they stayed safe. Neither Leonard nor Elias would know I was making plans like this, but it was better that way.

Ulrike visited the residence more often than the others. He also stopped by the Zähringen residence next door just as frequently as he came here. That, too, was meant to divert the Imperial Family’s attention.

And as for me…

I continued having breakfast, trading silly jokes with the servants as usual. I quickly filled my stomach with some egg-colored cake whose name I didn’t know and a cup of black tea, then unfolded the morning paper. France was already making headlines on the front page.

[Berlin Railway Construction Company Decides to Return All French Iron Ore: “A Decision in Response to Public Sentiment”]

[Bordeaux and Burgundy Wine Sales Plunge 73% from the Previous Week… German Wine Makes a Comeback]

[Rejected Even When Given Away for Free… Champagne Goes to Waste]

Creak—

Just as I was about to turn my attention to the articles, I heard a carriage approaching in the distance. Peering outside through a gap in the wide curtains, I saw several people climbing down from a carriage, dressed in the kind of uniforms commonly worn by officials of the Prussian government. I folded the newspaper and stood up.

Good.

France, which had stubbornly ignored everything until now, was finally making a move.

They had reacted a little sooner than I’d expected, which was worth noting, but it was a success nonetheless. It wasn’t hard to predict that I’d soon be taking that carriage to the government offices, so I straightened my clothes and headed to the center of the residence before a servant could come to summon me. The morning sunlight slanted through the windows, illuminating the marble floor. Before the doors, which stood wide open on either side, several officials were speaking with the residence’s chief steward. One of them spotted me and bowed politely.

“Lord Askanien. We have been sent by His Excellency, the Minister of Foreign Affairs.”

I stepped forward and acknowledged them with a nod. Holding up a letter bearing the seal of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the official delivered the message without hesitation.

“France has expressed its intention to send a delegation to Germany. The Minister requests your presence at a meeting to discuss our response.”