Chapter 1511 - 42: Situation Assessment_2

Chapter 1511: Chapter 42: Situation Assessment_2

In terms of hydraulic systems, East Africa can only rank fourth in the world, while the regions before East Africa are Europe, the United States, and the Far East Empire.

The first two are easier to understand, after all, Europe and America developed their industries early. Europe itself has a comparatively developed hydraulic system and historical accumulated advantages, while the United States also benefits from its geographical advantages, with lower costs for hydraulic construction.

As for why the Far East Empire can rank ahead of East Africa, it’s because of the Far East Empire’s long-standing historical heritage, with a rich legacy. In the history of the Far East Empire, the records in the field of hydraulic construction are more profound than those of most countries.

Of course, there is another common reason why these three regions can rank ahead of East Africa, which is their natural conditions that are much more advantageous than those of East Africa.

Yangtze River, Zhujiang River, Huai River...

Rhine River, Danube River, Volga River...

Mississippi River...

The river conditions in the aforementioned three regions are enough to make East Africa envious, and their average regional rainfall is generally higher than East Africa’s, and more stable compared to East Africa.

This also provides them with favorable natural conditions for hydraulic facility construction. After all, the fundamental condition of hydraulic construction is "water." Without water, discussing hydraulics is moot.

Of course, by a different standard, the hydraulic construction of East Africa could actually rank as the second in the world, only slightly worse than Europe, and on par with the United States—if looked at from an efficiency standpoint, East Africa’s hydraulic systems rank second in the world.

Although the scale of hydraulic construction in the Far East Empire has accumulated over a long history, with relics like the Dujiangyan that have been operational for thousands of years, this doesn’t change the reality of the Far East Empire’s hydraulic systems being grand but useless today.

After all, hydraulic systems require continuous maintenance, and the Far East Empire is currently in a "chaotic age," affecting their hydraulic systems. Many facilities are now abandoned.

Not to mention the current low technical level of the Far East Empire, it will even be difficult to quickly close the gap with other industrial powers once stabilized.

Ernst said, "Over the past few decades, your grandfather and I have made great efforts for this country to achieve today’s accomplishments, building East Africa into a relatively strong nation."

"But in reality, East Africa has a long way to go, such as the construction of a highway network, further improvement of inland navigation, construction of medium to large-scale hydraulic facilities, railway electrification, and civil works, among others."

"The main reason why these haven’t been implemented now is to leave them for you and your successors to complete. These will become your achievements, enhancing the royal family’s prestige and maintaining the Empire’s rule."

The grand infrastructure era of East Africa hasn’t really ended, or can be said to not end, but after the second five-year plan was completed, Ernst paused these large-scale projects.

After all, if Ernst completes all this work, Friedrich might find himself in an awkward position once he takes the helm.

Thus, after Friedrich becomes the Empire’s leader, achieving new accomplishments would be difficult, as people will naturally compare him to Ernst.

Aside from this reason, Ernst has other considerations.

"These projects, in addition to being achievements for you in the future, are also prepared as chips for you as I sense a major problem might arise in the world economy."

"Don’t be fooled by the signs of economic recovery in the world now, and although the global economy might prosper unprecedentedly for a while, I have a hunch that after this great prosperity, the world economy could very well decline."

"Thus triggering an unprecedented global economic crisis, as we all know, the increase in global industrial capacity must correspond to a reasonable market scale, while the global market is inherently fixed, at least relative to the blindly increasing industrial capacity."

"However, in the coming years, industrial sectors across countries—Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Austria, Russia, the Far East Empire, Japan, and others—will experience a boom period and engage in military race development in the industrial field."

Developing industry seems to be the sole path for most countries, but this also means the global industrial development will become more competitive.

If one does not choose to keep up, industrial backwardness will mean national power backwardness, potentially becoming prey at the table in the next conflict.

Therefore, an economic crisis and World War II are bound to happen, and Ernst estimates it will likely be even more brutal than in the past, with an even larger scale.

Of course, to some extent, this result is also propelled by Ernst, because without the existence of the East Africa he built, the first war wouldn’t have ended so "cursory."

This means that next time, European conflicts will be more acute, the scale of the war larger, the impact broader, and the intensity stronger.

And Ernst does not reject this outcome, because from the current situation, East Africa is in an unbeatable position; in the next war, East Africa will not choose to stand by like during the first war but instead will aim to determine the world’s fate and become one of the leaders and builders of the new international order.

"The development in the industrial sector will naturally also drive development in each country’s defense and military field, and as you’ve seen, the intensity of warfare during world wars is unprecedented. If another world war happens, it will mean an even more brutal scenario appears."

"Our advantage in East Africa is obvious, as like the United States, we are far from Europe’s conflicts. When a European war breaks out again, East Africa won’t likely be affected in the short term."

"However, if this war truly occurs, we will probably not just watch from the sidelines like in the previous world war but ensure East Africa sits in the position it should rightfully occupy."

Listening to Ernst’s predictions, Friedrich’s heart surged with waves of shock, as past experience proves the father is usually very accurate about world development trends.

He asked subtly, "Father, are you implying there will be a second World War, and when might it happen?"

Ernst said, "The outbreak of a world war essentially stems from accumulated conflicts between countries reaching a threshold, ultimately necessitating war as a means to transfer and alleviate the destructive power of these conflicts."

"And when a conflict will fully erupt in international politics, it is naturally during worldwide economic downturns, like in the previous world war, where the global economy was stuck in a bottleneck, prompting countries like Russia to initiate war."

Honestly, Russia was the main culprit of the first war, this is unquestionable, because only Russia’s economy was on the brink of collapse, and if the Tsarist Russian government didn’t wage war, Russia itself would have exploded.

Although other countries had varying degrees of issues, they weren’t fatal for their regimes and governance. Their engagement in war was more out of greed.

A typical example is Germany, where rapid development in economic, industrial, and military fields over the last century and the beginning of this century greatly expanded Germany’s ambitions. Therefore, on the eve of the first war, William II and other German officials were not only unafraid of war but wanted to use war to achieve their ambition of dominating Europe.

Of course, from Germany’s higher-ups’ perspective, this was not a significant issue, but humorously, Germany, as a war-supporting country, initiated the war prematurely without proper preparation for war. For instance, if Germany had made adequate mobilization and material reserves at the start of the war, it might not have fallen into a slump in the latter stages of the Western Front.

After all, Germany’s offensives were quite rapid initially, nearing Paris, and if fully committed, France would likely have fallen.

Ernst said, "The next time a major global economic crisis erupts, it could be the world’s most tense and crisis-laden time; this is common sense. Of course, as long as we’re prepared, regardless of how global situations develop, we can remain unaffected."

"At present, don’t be swayed by the development trends of the global economy, but rather seize opportunities to resolutely make up the Empire’s deficiencies. This way, East Africa will be better equipped to face future crises, including wars."

In conclusion, Ernst does not believe in the theory upheld by current Western economists. East Africa must intervene and adjust its economic development before the next economic crisis erupts, doing preparatory work beforehand rather than acting like the US government, being a so-called economic "night watchman."